SEIRCast

Current Model Structure

Newcomb, K., Smith, M.E., Donohue, R.E. et al.
Iterative data-driven forecasting of the transmission and management of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 using social interventions at the county-level.
Sci Rep 12, 890 (2022).

Latest Model Predictions

CountyShort-Term Forecasts of Daily Confirmed Cases
March 13th, 2021		Effective
Reproduction Number		Near-Term
Forecasted Trend
 Long-Term
Forecasts
Alachua Median Prediction: 17 cases 0.83 Likely Decreasing
 Alachua Forecast Alachua Forecast
Baker Median Prediction: 7 cases 0.84 Likely Decreasing Baker Forecast Baker Forecast
Bay Median Prediction: 64 cases 1.15 Likely Increasing
 Bay Forecast Bay Forecast
Bradford Median Prediction: 4 cases 1.06 Likely Increasing Bradford Forecast Bradford Forecast
Brevard Median Prediction: 158 cases 1.05 Likely Stable Brevard Forecast Brevard Forecast
Broward Median Prediction: 825 cases 1.03 Likely Stable Broward Forecast Broward Forecast
Calhoun Median Prediction: 1 case 0.92 Likely Decreasing Calhoun Forecast Calhoun Forecast
Charlotte Median Prediction: 16 cases 0.83 Likely Decreasing Charlotte Forecast Charlotte Forecast
Citrus Median Prediction: 27 cases 0.87 Likely Decreasing Citrus Forecast Citrus Forecast
Clay Median Prediction: 20 cases 0.77 Likely Decreasing Clay Forecast Clay Forecast
Collier Median Prediction: 79 cases 1.05 Likely Stable Collier Forecast Collier Forecast
Columbia Median Prediction: 13 cases 0.97 Likely Decreasing Columbia Forecast Columbia Forecast
DeSoto Median Prediction: 16 cases 1.07 Likely Increasing DeSoto Forecast DeSoto Forecast
Dixie Median Prediction: 8 cases 1.32 Likely Increasing Dixie Forecast Dixie Forecast
Duval Median Prediction: 88 cases 0.88 Likely Decreasing Duval Forecast Duval Forecast
Escambia Median Prediction: 67 cases 1.04 Likely Stable Escambia Forecast Escambia Forecast
Flagler Median Prediction: 35 cases 1.22 Likely Increasing Flagler Forecast Flagler Forecast
Franklin Median Prediction: 1 cases 1.71 Likely Increasing Franklin Forecast Franklin Forecast
Gadsden Median Prediction: 5 cases 0.98 Likely Increasing Gadsden Forecast Gadsden Forecast
Gilchrist Median Prediction: 10 cases 0.64 Likely Decreasing Gilchrist Forecast Gilchrist Forecast
Glades Median Prediction: 1 cases 1.08 Likely Increasing Glades Forecast Glades Forecast
Gulf Median Prediction: 2 cases 0.89 Likely Decreasing
 Gulf Forecast Gulf Forecast
Hamilton Median Prediction: 1 cases 1.49 Likely Increasing Hamilton Forecast Hamilton Forecast
Hardee Median Prediction: 5 cases 0.92 Likely Decreasing
 Hardee Forecast Hardee Forecast
Hendry Median Prediction: 5 cases 1.00 Likely Stable
 Hendry Forecast Hendry Forecast
Hernando Median Prediction: 31 cases 0.95 Likely Stable Hernando Forecast Hernando Forecast
Highlands Median Prediction: 11 cases 0.88 Likely Decreasing
 Highlands Forecast Highlands Forecast
Hillsborough Median Prediction: 337 cases 0.99 Likely Stable Hillsborough Forecast Hillsborough Forecast
Holmes Median Prediction: 2 cases 1.17 Likely Increasing Holmes Forecast Holmes Forecast
Indian River Median Prediction: 28 cases 0.91 Likely Decreasing
 Indian River Forecast Indian River Forecast
Jackson Median Prediction: 5 cases 1.15 Likely Increasing Jackson Forecast Jackson Forecast
Jefferson Median Prediction: 2 cases 1.02 Likely Increasing Jefferson Forecast Jefferson Forecast
Lafayette Median Prediction: 0 cases 0.81 Likely Decreasing
 Lafayette Forecast Lafayette Forecast
Lake Median Prediction: 122 cases 1.10 Likely Increasing Lake Forecast Lake Forecast
Lee Median Prediction: 124 cases 1.01 Likely Increasing Lee Forecast Lee Forecast
Leon Median Prediction: 47 cases 0.95 Likely Stable Leon Forecast Leon Forecast
Levy Median Prediction: 5 cases 0.90 Likely Decreasing
 Levy Forecast Levy Forecast
Liberty Median Prediction: 0 cases 1.06 Likely Increasing
 Liberty Forecast Liberty Forecast
Madison Median Prediction: 4 cases 1.01 Likely Stable Madison Forecast Madison Forecast
Manatee Median Prediction: 103 cases 1.01 Likely Increasing Manatee Forecast Manatee Forecast
Marion Median Prediction: 56 cases 0.90 Likely Decreasing Marion Forecast Marion Forecast
Martin Median Prediction: 53 cases 1.11 Likely Increasing Martin Forecast Martin Forecast
Miami-Dade Median Prediction: 1262 cases 1.03 Likely Increasing Miami-Dade Forecast Miami-Dade Forecast
Monroe Median Prediction: 54 cases 1.34 Likely Increasing Monroe Forecast Monroe Forecast
Nassau Median Prediction: 12 cases 0.94 Likely Decreasing Nassau Forecast Nassau Forecast
Okaloosa Median Prediction: 118 cases 1.22 Likely Increasing Okaloosa Forecast Okaloosa Forecast
Okeechobee Median Prediction: 6 cases 0.96 Likely Stable
 Okeechobee Forecast Okeechobee Forecast
Orange Median Prediction: 282 cases 1.01 Likely Increasing Orange Forecast Orange Forecast
Osceola Median Prediction: 91 cases 1.04 Likely Increasing Osceola Forecast Osceola Forecast
Palm Beach Median Prediction: 452 cases 1.04 Likely Increasing Palm Beach Forecast Palm Beach Forecast
Pasco Median Prediction: 99 cases 0.95 Likely Stable Pasco Forecast Pasco Forecast
Pinellas Median Prediction: 227 cases 1.01 Likely Increasing Pinellas Forecast Pinellas Forecast
Polk Median Prediction: 117 cases 0.88 Likely Decreasing Polk Forecast Polk Forecast
Putnam Median Prediction: 9 cases 1.01 Likely Increasing Putnam Forecast Putnam Forecast
St. Johns Median Prediction: 24 cases 1.02 Likely Increasing St. Johns Forecast St. Johns Forecast
St. Lucie Median Prediction: 73 cases 1.12 Likely Increasing St. Lucie Forecast St. Lucie Forecast
Santa Rosa Median Prediction: 29 cases 0.90 Likely Decreasing Santa Rosa Forecast Santa Rosa Forecast
Sarasota Median Prediction: 82 cases 0.87 Likely Decreasing Sarasota Forecast Sarasota Forecast
Seminole Median Prediction: 65 cases 0.98 Likely Stable
 Seminole Forecast Seminole Forecast
Sumter Median Prediction: 59 cases 1.21 Likely Increasing Sumter Forecast Sumter Forecast
Suwannee Median Prediction: 5 cases 0.74 Likely Decreasing Suwannee Forecast Suwannee Forecast
Taylor Median Prediction: 4 cases 1.42 Likely Increasing Taylor Forecast Taylor Forecast
Union Median Prediction: 2 cases 1.20 Likely Increasing Union Forecast Union Forecast
Volusia Median Prediction: 110 cases 1.03 Likely Increasing Volusia Forecast Volusia Forecast
Wakulla Median Prediction: 3 cases 0.91 Likely Decreasing
 Wakulla Forecast Wakulla Forecast
Walton Median Prediction: 18 cases 1.14 Likely Increasing Walton Forecast Walton Forecast
Washington Median Prediction: 3 cases 1.03 Likely Increasing Washington Forecast Washington Forecast